The people with the greatest incentives to enroll in Obamacare are, naturally, those who are sickest and those who are poorest -- let's call them the SIP's. The sick will have an incentive to enroll because they have pre-existing conditions. The poor will have an incentive to enroll because they will receive premium support.
Hence, the mandate. That is, the only way Obamacare can work is if the young and affluent -- let's call them the YAF's -- also are forced to enroll. Since the YAF's by definition have no pre-existing conditions and will not receive premium support, the premiums paid by them under Obamacare will be far in excess of the premiums they would have paid without Obamacare. And the excess paid in by the YAF's, so the argument goes, will cover the costs of the SIP's.
But, how is this a good deal for the YAF's? After all, they are healthy, so their only need is for insurance against catastrophic illness or injury. Well, they are being told, their reward will come decades later in life when they are no longer YAF's, but have themselves become SIP's. The problem is that this reward is being promised to them at a date decades in the future by a government that cannot even meet the liabilities it already has on its books for other social programs, such as Social Security and Medicare. So, how can these YAF's believe that the government will deliver on this additional promise?
When the YAF's realize what a raw deal they are getting, they will put an end to Obamacare.
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