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I would vote no, for two reasons. First, much as the prospect of euro exit frightens everyone — me included — the troika is now effectively demanding that the policy regime of the past five years be continued indefinitely. Where is the hope in that? Maybe, just maybe, the willingness to leave will inspire a rethink, although probably not. But even so, devaluation couldn’t create that much more chaos than already exists, and would pave the way for eventual recovery, just as it has in many other times and places. Greece is not that different.
Second, the political implications of a yes vote would be deeply troubling. The troika clearly did a reverse Corleone — they made Tsipras an offer he can’t accept, and presumably did this knowingly. So the ultimatum was, in effect, a move to replace the Greek government. And even if you don’t like Syriza, that has to be disturbing for anyone who believes in European ideals.
Devaluation couldn't create much more chaos than already exists? Paul, are you kidding? The chaos has only just begun. On Friday, Greeks had free access to euros; today, Monday, they do not. If Greeks are forced to issue their own currency, then, exactly which importers, Paul, will accept payment in the worthless drachmas of a country that has shown itself completely unwilling to abide by its financial obligations, and then spat in the face of and vilified its creditors as criminals to boot?
As is apparent from the reaction of global markets today, the impact of a Grexit outside of Greece will be minor. Greece itself, however, is faced with the prospect of becoming a modern-day Albania. Given this prospect, replacing the Greek government is not such a bad option.
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