New Iraqi Kurdistan is no panacea

It has been proposed that Iraq be partitioned into 3 states: Kurdistan, Sunnistan, and Shiastan. It is suggested that such a division will bring about a more stable situation in the Middle East.

In fact, the creation of a new independent state of Kurdistan may actually increase instability in the Middle East. To understand why, you need only look at the events that triggered WWI 100 years ago. Serbia had been recognized at the Congress of Berlin in 1878 as an independent state. Neighboring Bosnia, on the other hand, which had a large Serb population, had been annexed by the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1908. As an act of protest against Austro-Hungarian domination of the Bosnian Serbs, Gavrilo Princip assassinated Archduke Frederick Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian crown, in 1914, thereby triggering the crisis that led to the First World War.

If the area of Iraq that is currently occupied by Kurds is recognized as a new independent state of Kurdistan, a very similar situation will be created. The new independent state of Kurdistan will have approximately 5M Kurdish inhabitants, but, right across the border in Turkey there will still be at least 15M more Kurds, who have historically been persecuted by the Turkish government. Additionally, there are 7M more Kurds right across the border in Iran.

Wikipedia defines irredentism as follows:

Irredentism (from Italian irredento, "unredeemed") is any position of a state advocating annexation of territories administered by another state on the grounds of common ethnicity or prior historical possession, actual or alleged. It is often advocated by pan-nationalist movements and has been a feature of identity politics, cultural and political geography.

We can very easily imagine that Turkish and Iranian Kurds will want the same independence that their Kurdish brethren will have across the border in the new independent state. It is also easy to imagine that Kurds in the new independent state will begin to agitate for the emancipation of their Kurdish brethren across the border in Turkey and Iran. The new independent state of Kurdistan will be the equivalent of Serbia. The neighboring regions of Turkey and Iran where Kurds predominate will be the equivalent of Bosnia. In sum, the creation of a new independent state of Kurdistan with pockets of Kurdish peoples right across the border in Turkey and Iran could very easily spawn an irredentist movement in Kurdistan that could lead to conflict with Turkey and Iran, further destabilizing the Middle East.