The risk of attacking ISIS alone

We run a great risk if we demonize and attack ISIS alone in Iraq. ISIS has been successful because, as violent and extremist as they are, at some level they represent the interests (and predominantly Wahhabi sentiments) of a large segment of Sunni Muslims in Syria and Iraq and in other foreign countries. If we attack ISIS alone, we are, in essence, attacking that large segment of Sunni Muslims. If we attack ISIS alone, we will be seen as killing Sunnis in the defense of Shiites; we will be seen, in essence, as fighting on behalf of Iran. This will turn the entire spectrum of Sunni Muslims, from the most moderate to the most extreme (such as ISIS) against the United States. There is no more predictable way of inciting violent terrorist attacks against the American homeland than to attack ISIS alone.

Any attempt by the United States to intervene or play any kind of role in Iraq must be even-handed. We must recognize the legitimate interests of all the various factions: the Shiite majority, the Sunni minority, and the Kurds in Iraq; but at the same time we must not show preference for any one of these groups. In particular, we must not be seen as attacking ISIS alone while defending the pro-Shiite, pro-Iranian regime of Maliki.

Of course, as I have written repeatedly in the last week, it would be much easier to influence and shape the situation in Iraq if Obama had not withdrawn all American troops from that country. If we had American troops on the ground, then, the purpose of these troops could be to stand as a moderating, mediating, peace-keeping force between the various factions. Now, instead, we find ourselves in a situation where our only means of affecting the outcome is to attack one faction or the other.

Obama’s decision to withdraw all American troops has placed us in an impossible situation. But, before we mount bombers and drones against any faction in Iraq, we need to ask ourselves how such an attack will be interpreted by the parties on the other side and whether those parties we attack will attack us in retribution.