Sunday, October 23, 2011

Judging Mr Obama's policies in the Middle East

Now is an opportune time to assess Mr Obama's policies in the Middle East.

First, let me give credit where credit is due. Undoubtedly, the world is a better place without Osama bin Laden, Moammar Qaddafi, and Hosni Mubarak in positions of power. To the extent that President Obama was responsible for the removal of these tyrants, he deserves credit. Obviously, he deserves a lot of credit for launching the Special Forces raid that killed bin Laden. But it is just as obvious that George Bush and Dick Cheney also deserve substantial credit for bin Laden's demise, since it was they who led the invasion of Afghanistan and created the platform from which Mr Obama was able to launch his strike against bin Laden. It is less clear how much credit Mr Obama deserves for the elimination of Qadddafi and Mubarak. It would seem that the Libyan and Egyption peoples deserve the lion's share of the credit here, although, now that Qaddafi and Mubarak have departed from the scene, there is absolutely no guarantee that the new regimes that assume power in those countries will be any better, either for the Libyan and Egyption peoples themselves, or for US interests.

Another major feature of Mr Obama's Middle East policy is apparently: withdrawal. Giving in to Shiite radicals (led by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr) in southern Iraq, Mr Obama has agreed to withdraw all US troops from Iraq by the end of the 2012. This will be an enormous blow to our ability to project US power and influence in the Middle East and will open the door to Iran to destabilize its neighbor. When you put our departure from Iraq together with the fact that Mr Obama intends to pull us out of Afghanistan as soon as possible and has done absolutely nothing to prevent Iran from moving forward with its program to acquire nuclear weapons, it is obvious that the Middle East in the not too distanct future will be a much less secure place for US interests than it was when George Bush left office.

Another major accomplishment of the Obama Administration has been to alienate completely the government of Israel, who has traditionally been America's staunchest ally in the region.

So, what the Obama Administration will have accomplished by the end of 2012 is: alienate Israel, withdraw major detachments of US troops from the Middle East, appease Iran, and generally portray the United States as a nation that "leads from behind" and does not have the stomach to stand up to tinhorn clerics and follow through on long term nation building in the Middle East. In other words, Mr Obama will have sown the seeds of continued unrest and discord in the Middle East for decades to come.

1 comment:

  1. The weakness of the 'lead from behind' strategy, I suspect, will become quite visible as soon as the Libyans begin to form something like a government.

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